A report by the Pew Research Center warned that the U.S. birth rate dropped to its lowest level since the beginning of the Great Depression. The birth rate of 63.2 per 1,000 women of childbearing age is the lowest since at least 1920.

The major reason for the decline in births was due to a drop in births among immigrants. America would have dropped below replacement levels if it were not for the significant number of births among immigrants. The tough economic times have decreased their birth rate as well. Nevertheless, foreign-born moms continue to give birth to a disproportionate share of the country’s babies.

Fertility rates have been dropping for some time, but is has sometimes been difficult to see because of the fluctuations in the number of babies born. After World War II, we had a baby boom in which 76 million babies were born from 1946 to 1964. The baby boom was followed by a baby bust. Some have called it a “birth dearth.”

This birth dearth has been taking place now for decades. But it has been hard to see. The number of babies born in the 1980s and 1990s actually increased. It was not because the birth rate was increasing. It was because there were so many baby boom women who were having babies.

The birth rate is down for many reasons. Abortion is one obvious reason. More than a million babies that might have been born each year are aborted. Lifestyle choices are another reason. Young people are getting married later, have children later, and have fewer children compared to previous generations.

The situation in America is not unique. All of the modern industrialized countries are facing what many call a “demographic winter.” Falling fertility rates and aging populations are one of the greatest challenges facing many countries in Europe and elsewhere. The United States now may face those same challenges.

During this election season we will be hearing quite a bit about the middle class. Candidates will claim that they want to fight for the middle class and argue that their policies will help middle class families. They will also say that members of the opposite party are the reason for the decline of the middle class, even though this decline has been happening under both Republican and Democratic presidents and Congress.

The Pew Research Center documented that the middle class is no longer the dominant class it once was. “After more than four decades of serving as the nation’s economic majority, the American middle class is now matched in number by those in the economic tiers above it and below it.”

The middle class has not done well financially. The median income of these households is four percent less than it was in 2000. And because of the housing market crisis and recession, their median wealth assets fell by 28 percent from 2001 to 2013.

As I have already mentioned, the hollowing out of the middle class has been taking place for decades. Each decade ended with a smaller share of adults living in middle-income households than in the beginning. Some who were in the middle class ended up in the upper class and others ended up in the lower class.

There are lots of reasons for the decline of the middle class. Many commentators point to globalization, which has undercut manufacturing. But I think one of the most significant reasons has been the breakdown of the traditional family. Single parent homes do not do as well as intact family homes. They seem to have the economic odds stacked against them.

Some public policies might help families, such as lower taxes and creation of a better job market. But some of the best solutions will come from social and spiritual solutions that will strengthen American families.

It seems that welfare has replaced work in America. In the last few years, we have seen the largest expansion of the welfare state since President Lyndon Johnson. We have also seen the largest decline in the labor force in 30 years.

Stephen Moore with the Hertitage Foundation (and formerly with The Wall Street Journal) believes it is time to ask whether welfare has contributed to the reduction in the percentage of Americans holding a job. More than 46 million Americans are on food stamps. We have a record increase in the number of Americans on disability.

Back in 1996, the Republican Congress and President Clinton passed a bill that made work a requirement for welfare. Despite the predictions of failure and the prediction that it would harm the poor, we actually saw the number of people on welfare decrease by 50 percent. Unfortunately, the current administration has removed most of the positive requirements in that original bill.

When Stephen Moore was on my radio program, I also made the case that some of these generous welfare benefits actually are a significant disincentive to working. The CATO Institute did a study of welfare payments in each state. They argue in their monograph “The Work Versus Welfare Trade-Off” that welfare currently pays more than a minimum wage job in 35 states (even after accounting for the Earned Income Tax Credit). In 13 states, welfare pays more than $15 per hour.

Americans are a generous people. They don’t mind helping someone who has fallen on hard times. But they see welfare as a system that should provide a hand up not a hand out. It is no wonder that the welfare rolls are increasing when it makes more economic sense in many states to collect welfare than to find a job.

What is the relationship of elections to culture? Many Christians argue that elections are downstream from where real change in taking place. Often politicians and judges are making decisions to “catch-up” with the culture. Mark Steyn understands this.

He writes about this in his book, The Undocumented Mark Steyn. He explains this in his New York Post article, “The real battle for America is over culture, not elections.” His argument is simple. Culture trumps politics. In many ways politics is merely the reflection of cultural change.

He acknowledges: “You can’t have conservative government in a liberal culture, and that’s the position the Republican Party is in.” He goes on to explain: “Liberals expend tremendous effort changing the culture. Conservatives expend tremendous effort changing elected officials every other November — and then are surprised that it doesn’t make much difference.”

Try this as a thought experiment. Imagine that some of the candidates you supported who lost their elections actually won. How much difference do you think their election would make as the culture has become more secular and anti-Christian? There might have been a few less assaults on religious freedom, but the impact of a single candidate on many of these cases might be negligible. What would be the impact on a culture that has accepted same-sex marriage? Again, there might be a small impact, but the culture trend continues.

Mark Steyn concludes that: “If the culture’s liberal, if the schools are liberal, if the churches are liberal, if the hip, groovy business elite is liberal, if the guys who make the movies and the pop songs are liberal” electing a particular candidate “isn’t going to make a lot of difference.”

This isn’t to say that elections aren’t important. Elections do have consequences. But the lesson here is that culture trumps politics.

On this Christmas day, I think it would be good to reflect for just a moment on the Incarnation. God became man and took on human flesh. This is a great theological wonder and mystery.

Malcolm Muggeridge wrote this to describe the importance of the birth of Christ. “Thanks to the great mercy and marvel of the Incarnation, the cosmic scene is resolved into a human drama. A human drama in which God reached down to relate Himself to man and man reaches up to relate himself to God. Time looks into eternity and eternity into time, making now always and always now. Everything is transformed by this sublime drama of the Incarnation, God’s special parable for man in a fallen world.”

God reached down to us by sending the second person of the Trinity to earth to become part of the human drama and human dilemma. God stepped out of eternity into time to become part of the human community. What an incredible act of love and mercy.

God did not just come to dwell among us and comfort us. He came that He might raise us up through the death, burial, and resurrection of Jesus Christ. Although we celebrate the birth of Christ today, we also look to the death and resurrection of Christ that we celebrate at Easter. Romans 5:8 proclaims: “God shows his love for us in that while we were still sinners, Christ died for us.” 1 Peter 2:24 says that Christ “bore our sins in His own body on the tree, that we, having died to sins, might live for righteousness: by whose stripes you were healed.”

On this Christmas day, we should pause to reflect on why Christ came to earth and what He did for us on the cross.

On the day before Christmas, I thought it would be appropriate to reflect on the coming of the Messiah. The Old Testament contains hundreds of prophecies that give specific detail about the “anointed one” who is the Messiah. The prophets proclaimed that He would come to save the people.

The Bible is unique in many ways, especially when it comes to fulfilled prophecy.
At the time when it was written, 27 percent (1800 verses) of the Bible was prophetic. Large portions of those prophecies have been fulfilled, and that is a powerful argument for the inspiration of the Bible.

What is the probability that these Messianic prophecies could be fulfilled in the life of one person by chance? Peter Stoner, in his book Science Speaks, calculated the probability of just eight Messianic prophecies being fulfilled by chance. These included the prophecy in Micah 5:2 that the Messiah would be born in Bethlehem. Another was Malachi 3:1 that predicted that a messenger would prepare the way for the Messiah. Four of the prophecies were from Zechariah. They predicted that the Messiah would be betrayed: by a friend, for 30 pieces of silver, and it would be used to buy a potter’s field. Another prophecy said that the Messiah would die by being pierced (crucified).

Multiplying all of these probabilities together, Peter Stoner came up with a number of 10 to the 17th power. In other words, the chance that just eight prophecies could be fulfilled by chance is one in one hundred quadrillion. In order to illustrate this, he says imagine we could fill the state of Texas with silver dollars two feet deep. Put a red mark on one and then ask a blindfolded person to travel anywhere in the state. The chance that he would pick up the marked silver dollar on the first try would be one in one hundred quadrillion.

The conclusion is simple. Jesus is indeed the Messiah predicted by the prophets.

During this Christmas week, I have taken the time to discuss the theology of some of the Christmas hymns and carols that we sing. Today I would like to talk about The First Noel. It is an English song dating back to the sixteenth century. Some people believe that the First Noel was French because of the French spelling of Noel, but it is actually an English song. The French word Noël does mean “Christmas” and is relevant to the lyrics of the song. The First Noel was first published in 1833 when it appeared in the work, Christmas Carols Ancient and Modern.

The first line of the song suggests that a December date for the birth of Christ: “The first Noel, the angels did say; Was to certain poor shepherds in fields as they lay;
In fields where they lay keeping their sheep, On a cold winter’s night that was so deep.” Although many doubt that Jesus was born in December, there are some theologians (such as the author of the Chronological Aspects of the Life of Christ) who believes that a December date is possible.

Whatever the case may be about the date of the birth of Jesus, the song continues: “Born is the King of Israel!” It reminds us that a king was born that night. Yet few understood the significance of a birth in Bethlehem.

Even the wise men from the East did not completely understand the significance of His birth, but they were guided to Him by a star. “For all to see there was a star;
Shining in the east, beyond them far; And to the earth it gave great light, And so it continued both day and night.”

The song goes on to say that “three wise men came from country far.” The Bible does not tell us how many wise men there were. We know there were three kinds of gifts
(gold, frankincense, and myrrh).

What the Bible clearly teaches, however, is that Jesus was born and that He is “the Lamb of God who takes away the sin of the world” (John 1:29).

It is estimated that Charles Wesley wrote over 6500 hymns. Perhaps his best-known hymn is “Hark! the Herald Angels Sing.” Over the years it has been edited slightly, but the meaning and theology remains as he wrote it more than two centuries ago.

It begins with a proclamation of the birth of Jesus: “Hark! the herald angels sing, Glory to the newborn King; Peace on earth, and mercy mild, God and sinners reconciled.”

The hymn reminds us why Christ came to earth. Jesus came into the world to bring peace, but many who sing this song fail to realize that it was to bring peace between us and God. Wesley’s hymn reminds us that His birth was so that God and sinners would be reconciled. We are the sinners in this hymn, for all have sinned and fallen short of the glory of God (Romans 3:23). All we like sheep have gone astray (Isaiah 53:6). We have broken God’s commandments and need to be reconciled with God. This was done when Christ died for our sins (1 Corinthians 15:3).

This hymn by Charles Wesley goes on to describe who Jesus Christ is. “Christ by highest heaven adored; Christ, the everlasting Lord! Late in time behold Him come, offspring of the Virgin’s womb. Veiled in flesh the Godhead see; hail the incarnate Deity,
Pleased as man with men to dwell, Jesus our Emmanuel.”

This is the wonder of the Incarnation. Jesus became the “offspring of the Virgin’s womb.” God became man and was “veiled in flesh” even though He was the “incarnate Deity.”

This Christmas week, let us once again reflect upon the Incarnation. How wonderful yet mysterious that God would become man and dwell among us. And that He would be willing to die on a cross for our sins.

This is Christmas week, and so I thought we might reflect on the hymn, “O Holy Night” by John Dwight.

“O holy night! The stars are brightly shining. It is the night of the dear Savior’s birth. Long lay the world in sin and error pining, Till He appeared and the soul felt its worth.”

Jesus came into the world to save us and so we feel valuable and our soul feels its worth. Perhaps the most quoted verse in the Bible is John 3:16. It tells us that Jesus came because “God so loved the world.” He came so that our souls would feel their worth to God.

This hymn also asks us to consider the fact that the King of kings was born as a human infant and placed in a manger. “The King of kings lay thus in lowly manger, In all our trials born to be our Friend. He knows our need, to our weakness is no stranger. Behold your King, before Him lowly bend.”

Isn’t it amazing that there were some who were willing to worship him even while merely a babe in a manger? The hymn then talks about how we should respond to one another in humility.

“Truly He taught us to love one another; His law is love and His gospel is peace. Chains shall He break, for the slave is our brother, And in His name all oppression shall cease.”

We no longer have slavery in this country, but many people are still enslaved to various forms of sin and need Jesus as their Savior. And we as believers are to model the humility that Jesus demonstrated when He stepped out of eternity into time and gave up His rights as God.

This is a message we not only need at Christmas, but every day.