A few months ago, I did a commentary on the fact the modern nations are facing
a “demographic winter.” That is a colorful way of saying that the falling birth rates in
many countries will devastate their policies and economies. When fertility rates drop, the
population age profile inverts: there are more old people than young people.

Japan is a good example. Eric Metaxas in a recent commentary explains that
nearly a quarter of Japan’s population is over sixty-five. By the mid point in this century,
the percentage will rise to nearly 40 percent. In order to reverse this, Japan would have to
either have more kids or admit more immigrants. Japanese women are having few
children, and Japan values homogeneity and will not open their borders to any significant
extent. Japan is only one example. Nineteen countries have lower fertility rates than
Japan.

Jonathan Last explains what is ahead in his book, What to Expect When No One’s
Expecting. He explains that population inversion isn’t the only problem. Slow economic
growth follows low population growth. He reminds us that Japan has had essentially zero
economic growth in the last two decades.

Immigration is the only thing keeping America from careening off the
demographic cliff, like Asia and Europe. The latest figures from the Census Bureau
report that the U.S. birth rate is the lowest it has ever recorded. Policy makers should pay
attention. Michael Barone points out that when Medicare was established in 1965 and
when Social Security was vastly expanded in 1972, America was accustomed to the high
birth rates of the baby boom.

The birth rate fell. “Social Security had to be tweaked in 1983 when it became
clear there weren’t enough working age people to fund benefits promised to the elderly.”
The latest Census Bureau report shows why politicians need to tweak the system once
again. We are producing fewer babies and fewer dollars.