Proponents for same-sex marriage continue to argue that history is on their side
and that a final victory is inevitable. Even many opponents of same-sex marriage often
seem resigned to the fact that they will eventually be on the losing side. As one of my
guests lamented, “the only thing necessary for the complete legalization of same-sex
marriage is time and attrition.” While that may be true, it is worth mentioning that often
what seems inevitable never actually occurs.

Rich Lowry in a recent column went through a list of things that many people
thought were inevitable. “The failed Equal Rights Amendment looked inevitable
when it passed Congress in 1972 and immediately 30 states ratified it.” Proponents of
abortion rights assumed that once a generation grew up with abortion being legal, that
any opposition to abortion would wither away. A decade or so ago, gun control seemed
unstoppable “when Congress passed the Brady Bill and the assault-weapons ban in the
1990s.” Now, there are more Second Amendment protections than existed two decades
ago.

It is worth noting the more than 30 states have passed constitutional amendments
defining marriage between one man and one woman. North Carolina was the most recent
state to do so where 61 percent of the voters embraced the traditional definition. When
the American people are given an opportunity to vote, they still embrace a traditional
definition of marriage.

Proponents of same-sex marriage sense momentum when they see certain states
change their marriage laws due to legislative action or judicial fiat. But even if that
momentum was widespread, they should remember momentum is easier seen in physics
than in politics.

I call this the “myth of momentum.” In the physical world we observe that a body
in motion will stay in motion. But in politics, sometimes political forces can turn around
quickly and unexpectedly. Today’s momentum can be tomorrow’s backlash. Despite
what many may think same-sex marriage is not inevitable.