It may be the most useless number you have never heard of in government. That number is what is called the “social cost of carbon.” The Obama administration created it years ago as an instrument to argue against fossil fuels and to argue for radical environmental policies. On his very first day of office, President Biden issued an executive order resurrecting the Obama-era social cost of carbon.

When it was first created (back in 2010), the cost was estimated at $22/ton. Two years later, the administration raised it to $36/ton. They eventually landed at $51/ton as President Obama left office.

The Biden administration issued a report last month putting the possible damages at $51/ton for carbon dioxide emissions. This latest updated version will certainly go higher since the White House has said it will factor in commitments under the Paris climate treaty and also consider such issues as “environmental justice” and “intergenerational equity.” Here’s my prediction: by the end of this year, the social cost of carbon will be estimated at more than $100/ton.

There is really no reason to believe this number for the social cost of carbon is based on rigorous science and economic evaluation. I was reading one paper that made the case that the benefits of carbon dioxide actually outweigh the cost substantially. Forests, grasslands, and various crops, for example, show greater growth when there is more carbon dioxide.

The next time we have an unusual weather event, expect the social cost of carbon to be mentioned and the cost of that weather phenomenon will be used to raise the cost even higher. It may be a number you never heard of, but that is about to change.